OFFICIAL ELECTION PREDICTION!!!
Which in no way is based upon their fitness for office as neither is fit to be dogcatcher.
This is the LEAST confident I have ever been, but here it is:
Senate 51 R, 49 D (+/- 1)
House, 217 R, 218 D (+/- 5)
Harris wins 313 electoral votes and the election taking 6 of 7 swing states - PA, MI, WI, AZ, NC, GA but losing NV
I also predict that America and the world will get better and better despite our shitty politicians.
Some notes on why:
For those noting the numbers favor Trump - they absolutely do, as I pointed out in a previous post. He is 4 plus point better than he was in 2020 and that SHOULD give him the wins if the polls are accurate. But they haven't been accurate for 2 elections and my money is on the pollsters overcorrecting.
The D's ground game has lately been better than R's but was hamstrung by COVID and the D's higher propensity to social distance.
I think their Get Out the Vote game this year could be decisive.
Extremely low confidence in this prediction. Could have talked myself into any of 4 different scenarios.
I also think Trump is an objectively worse candidate than he was in 2020. Much worse. I struggle to see how independents move his way except as a reaction to Harris/Biden narratives.
I also give a tiny bit of weight to my crazy theory that Trump wants to lose, close enough so he can claim he won, but doesn't have to do the shitty job.
